Methane the Enemy:
Fracking wells became a big energy source about 15 years ago. It supplied lots of methane (natural gas). But it has created serious dangers! The shallow horizontal wells of Fracking possibly produce ten times, more methane leakage than did the old vertical methane wells! And the strong chemicals used have poisoned the water in large areas!
An added danger is that methane’s climate warming power is much higher than we now believe! The present GWP (Global Warming Power) of methane is a “Standard” GWP of 34. But the real warming power of methane appears to be about 6.6 times higher. This combination is a dangerous situation!
The graph shows the decay of methane (Natural Gas) over 100 years. This is used to produce the “Standard” GWP of methane!
The 100 year “Time Horizon” and “Standard”:
The graph line above starts at 100% and decreases every year, showing the value for each of the 100 years. These values are used to produce an average. This average is the base value of methane’s GWP!
The graph also shows that after 40 years the values are below 10% and after 80 years the values are below 1%! Those 60 years of low values produce a low average that creates methane’s low GWP of 34! That is 34 times as powerful as an equal amount of CO2.
The 20 year time horizon:
The 20 year GWP is produced by the IPCC. Its average ends after 20 years and stops at 30%. And its warming power of GWP is 86 times as powerful as an equal amount of CO2!
The 1 year time horizon:
The 1 year GWP’s average is the top 100% and the first year, (see the graph). So the average is 100%. That 100% needs to be adjusted by the increases over time of the GWPs! Those have gone from 21 to 34!
So the 1 year GWP will be (34/21) x 100 = 162!
The 1 year GWP of 162; is 162 times as powerful as an equal amount of CO2!
And the 1 year GWP is 4.8 times as powerful as the “Standard”!
The 100% level is also the normal concentration of methane in the every day atmosphere! This is a GWP that adds important information to the real world!
The 100 and 20 year “time horizons” don’t mean anything!
Methane Emissions increase GWPs!
Every year the world produces enough methane to replace the 5.6% of methane that has decayed. Those methane emissions maintain the 100% atmosphere concentration.
Without the methane emissions the methane would decay and drop down as displayed on the graph. (If we can reduce our methane emissions that would lower methane’s warming power and save our climate!)
This is not magic!
The methane’s emissions are like running water into a barrel with a row of holes up the side. When you turn on the water flow, the level rises until the holes leak enough to equal the amount of input water. (There it stays like the methane emissions, maintaining the level.) And the maintaining emission flow is as important as the original amount! Change the amount of water flow and the barrel’s water level will balance at a new level. (We keep increasing ours)
The methane emissions involved over 20 years:
For 20 years methane adds 5.6% every year which replaces the methane decay! (5.6% x 20 = 112%) and that is more methane than the original 100%! This 112% is as involved as the 100%. The 100% of methane’s atmosphere weighs 5 billion tons! Can that amount be ignored!
Adding the original 100% plus the 112% = 212% of involved methane! The 20 year emission GWP would be 212% x 86 (20 year GWP) = 182 GWP.
Methane emissions for 100 years is (5.6% x 100) = 560%.
Adding the original 100% plus the 560% = 660% of involved methane!
The 100 year emission GWP would be 660% x 34 (100 year GWP) = 224 GWP.
The GWPs for 20 years and 100 years are 182 and 224 and are similar!
The Radiative Forcing
(The heating of every /sq meter of the Earth):
RF from the methane “Standard” and a GWP 34: The formula is:
1.9 PPM (Methane parts per million) x 34 GWP (Standard) x 0.004 (Correction constant) x 0.36 (Equal Mass Factor) x 2.7 (1750 correction) =
0.24 watts/sq meter!
Equal mass factor; CO2 has a higher atomic weight than CH4 methane (16/44 = 0.36).
The 1750 correction produces the CO2 and ozone produced by methane’s decay and also from methane’s increased warming since 1750. (1.9/0.7 = 2.7)
RF from emissions for 100 years; GWP 223:
1.9 PPM (Methane parts per million) x 223 GWP (Standard) x 0.004 (Correction constant) x 0.36 (Equal Mass Factor) x 2.7 (1750 correction) =
1.59 watts/sq meter!
RF of CO2 (carbon dioxide):
It is: 400 PPM (CO2 concentration) x 1 (GWP by definition) x .004 (correction constant) = 1.6 watts/sq meter!
So methane is as powerful a world warmer as carbon dioxide (CO2)!
The awkwardly low GWP 34’s warming power of methane has allowed us to continue emitting vast methane emissions. And for years we were not aware of what this is doing to our climate. The Big Oil fib of the GWP 34 has kept its huge profits for an extra 15 years and left us a climate disaster!
The lowest GWP in the “Decay Graph is 34 GWP
The highest GWP in the “Decay Graph is a 162 GWP . (And it roughly equals the concentration of methane in our atmosphere!)
The GWP including Methane Emissions and a 20 year “time horizon” is 182 GWP.
The GWP including the methane and a 100 year “time horizon” produces a 223 GWP.
The ESAS shallow Arctic area of 2 million sq km. has seriously frothing methane emissions 1 km across. There were reports of the increasing millions of tons of methane emissions. But these reports have been stopped for the last 3 years!
Siberia is larger than Canada and most of it is permafrost. And as it melts a large amount of methane is being released which could create unstoppable climate heating!
The Arctic contains at least 1 trillion tons of frozen methane hydrates.
Hydroxide (OH) which decays methane may lose its concentration because of methane’s increase. This could allow methane to stay in the atmosphere longer and increase warming.
The Fighter has the money:
Governments have to take charge to find and fix the methane leaks. Big Oil doesn’t want to know about methane leaks or poisoned water! But Governments don’t want to know either.
There are billions of dollars of dead money available on hidden far off islands that could be used to save our climate!
Every country should have a carbon tax! And its money must be spent on stopping all methane emissions.
The “Robin-hood” tax would charge a 0.05% on transactions of commodities, bonds, and currency trades. This can share some of the billions of dollars now kept by the richest people who may be happy to save the World and themselves!
Adding 1% to Canada’s Sales tax; is small suffering to save our environment!
We pay annually 35 Billion dollars in subsidies to Big Oil; a big joke for Big Oil! We can use most of it to save our climate and hire some Canadians too.
Many say it is too late to save the climate. But if we can keep a few million workers reducing methane and CO2 emissions; we can survive and live in this beautiful world.
Daniel Henshaw: email@example.com 604-730-0209
See the URLs below:
The real end
Mar 26, 2016.
Hon. Ms. Jody Wilson-Raybould, PC, MP:
This letter is about how to reduce our methane and CO2 emissions and the Site C Dam.
There is technology that can see the leaking of invisible methane!
We have an agreement with the US to reduce our methane emissions by 40% below 2012 levels by 2025! But everyone has been given false information. The US government EPA says Fracking methane only leaks 1.5% of its production! But independent measurements around Fracking wells, in the USA, have found most leaks between 5% and 10%! And that doesn’t include leaks by pipelines, storage, and methane’s processing. If methane leaks more than 3.5% of its production; its climate warming power is worse than coal’s!
The new camera (the FLIR GF320) that can see methane!
Pictures of the giant Californian methane leak probably used this camera. It was recently used to find 180 large leaks all over the USA. Canada could use them to find methane leaks, find how much they emit, and fix them! Aircraft pictures could check the vast areas of Fracking wells and old expired wells. Tight oil often vents unwanted methane. Depleted Fracking wells will leak methane forever because their powerful chemicals keep dissolving rocks and poisoning the water! There is a case in Pennsylvania that has convicted a drilling company for several million dollars for poisoning a neighborhood’s water!
Bad news for BC:
B.C. is trying to spend 8 billion dollars on the Site C Dam to power two, LNG projects in BC. One will be at Woodfibre in Howe Sound and the other near Prince Rupert! And they will be funded by the Indonesian state owned company, Petronus. Even one project will require thousands of new Fracking wells and end any attempts to reduce Canada’s methane emissions! There is danger that producing the LNG needs compressing thousands of tons of methane every day and will use the ocean water to cool the process. This heating of the ocean water will kill most sea life near the factory, including the salmon.
LNG and Fracking are both disasters that should end. The Peace River Valley should be left alone. The valley is a large valuable agricultural area, able to replace the agricultural interior of BC when the drought comes.
The First Nations people’s treaties being ignored. Their home will be destroyed and there will be no fish, or hunting, or tourists, and no jobs either!
The Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions:
CO2 does most of our climate warming. Its heat is accelerating the amount of Arctic methane emissions. And CO2 is absorbed by the oceans where it produces Carbonic acid which is starting to kill ocean life; so time is short for CO2 reductions! CO2 emissions are reduced by using energy efficiency but not nearly fast enough!
Geothermal power is the force that can save us!
Replacing most of the world’s carbon generated electricity will sharply reduce our CO2 emissions! It takes heat from hot rock 5 or 6 km down and uses it produce steam to power electric generators; while producing no CO2 emissions. Records of all gas and oil wells keep track of their temperatures! This saves costs of finding hot sources for geothermal wells!
Nearly all developed countries are installing geothermal power, except Canada. Horizontal drilling for a kilometer in several directions could be a big benefit for geothermal power. But the carbon corporations will continue the fight against geothermal power; a powerful opponent!
Our vital target now is to save the climate. But we can’t succeed without correct emission information. And we need to verify that ourselves. Canadians need to be educated about our climate situation. The CBC could much to help that!doesn’t mention anything about it!
A methane essay by Bill McKibben, researched by Harvard that should be read by all, especially MPs.
Saving Us From Burning Up:
We are destroying the world; and quickly. Our carbon emissions are warming the Arctic and melting its sea ice and exposing more heat absorbing ocean water. This is increasing its methane (natural gas) emissions by millions of tons every year. This comes from the melting of some of the trillion tons of methane hydrates under the Arctic Ocean and also the Siberian ground too. The ESAS (Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf) is twice the size of British Columbia, and half of it is less than 100 feet (30 meters) deep. The CO2 in the atmosphere is absorbed in the oceans where it turns to carbonic acid which kills oysters, clams, coral and other ocean life. Our carbon emissions are producing warming that causes disastrous storms, droughts and the melting of both ice caps. And we do nothing to stop any of it!
It started with Exxon being concerned about global warming in the 1980s. Their increasing CO2 emissions might heat the world’s climate, and threaten their profits. To avoid this, they produced propaganda that global warming was produced by sun spots and many other false ideas. Soon Exxon was joined by coal, natural gas and other large corporations. They all supplied serious money that financed many think tanks, armies of lobbyists, pliable governments, and they controlled almost all of the media. For 40 years they developed the perfect world sized trillion dollar profit machine.
But suddenly we may be losing control of our warming Arctic. With many positive heat feedbacks the Arctic methane emissions could increase too rapidly to stop!
The simple and only way to stop these various dangers is to reduce carbon emissions and lower temperatures. But the Exxon group (the profit machine) is still telling the “don’t worry be happy” messages. For example: “Our carbon emissions will be down to the zero amount by 2050”. There is no time for talking about 35 years from now! We need to take action now.
Methane (Natural Gas) Emission Reductions:
Our Methane emissions could be reduced by 50%. And methane decays quickly so it will decrease fast. The world’s 1.5 billion cattle produce about half of our methane emissions! The thousands of garbage dumps (millions?) emit methane, as does clear cutting vast areas of jungle. Fracking methane wells often leak about 10% of their production and they need to be closely regulated and avoided. Also methane pipelines leak (old) inside cities. California’s Aliso Canyon methane storage well has been stopped. But the USA has more than 300 of these methane storage wells which haven’t been maintained or tested for decades!
The Fracking methane wells and the methane storage in old carbon wells should be stopped. And the cattle population could be cut in half. That would enable the cattle to browse on grass instead of corn. The present corn US/Canada crop is 70% eaten by cattle. That corn could be released to feed the one billion seriously hungry people! Beef can be replaced by pork or poultry or kangaroo meat.
An organization called earthworksaction.org found over 180 methane leaks with infrared cameras. These were all around the USA so there could be 1800 or more leaks. There is a report that methane leaks of pipelines to serve Boston loses 90 million dollars worth of methane! Canada must have the same percentage of leaks too.
CO2 is the evil giant which doesn’t decay. But 30 billion tons of it enter the atmosphere every year and about 10 billion are absorbed in the oceans and trees.
Oceans have been absorbing 90% of our excess heat for 100 years! And the hot ocean water is moving lower in oceans where it will start to warm the deep methane hydrate deposits that surround every continent. Large deep areas around New Zealand show where methane emissions have moved large areas of the ocean floor! The warming climate is also melting vast amounts of Greenland’s ice which is starting to slow the the Gulf Stream; which will mess up the climate everywhere!
To reduce CO2 emissions requires a carbon tax, and energy efficiency, plus clean energy like wind, solar, and planting billions of trees. Also clean Geothermal generation could produce over 25% of clean electricity in North America. It collects heat by drilling wells deep under the earth where the rocks are hot. And horizontal drilling would be an advantage. Geothermal with its clean and cheap power could retire many coal and methane powered electricity power plants! Certainly every Geothermal power plant is a loss of CO2 emissions and profit!
There are 1.3 billion automobiles around the world, made of steel. We can make much lighter, smaller, efficient, electric cars with smaller batteries, and made of fiber glass which is as strong as steel, but doesn’t rust or produce CO2 in production. Efficient city transit is cheaper than building 10 lane bridges etc. We can also produce cement low in CO2 .
We can do a hundred other things if we have money!
Some needed money sources:
Governments claim poverty and say they have to lower taxes and balance their budget. We need money for useful governments now. Carbon Corporations may be losing their high profits of about 1 trillion dollars every decade! They could use some of it to help our survival! They could develop clean Geothermal electric power which should be easier to do with new horizontal drilling. It’s electricity could be cheap enough to replace coal and natural gas electricity and could remove salt from ocean water and also take CO2 from the atmosphere and turn it into a solid!
A carbon tax can be charged to the producers of carbon emissions. This tax makes consumers use energy efficiency. “Cap and Trade” is popular because it is complex and very profitable but it hasn’t slowed our emissions in 10 years! Every country should have a carbon tax! And the money collected should be used to produce clean energy.
The banks, corporations and the rich have hidden billions of dollars in foreign banks to avoid paying taxes on them! Our last government laid off about 500 federal tax accountants who used to collect some of this. It is called “dead money” now because it does nothing useful. We need it to save us and our children!
The “Robin-hood” tax would charge a 0.05% on transactions of commodities, bonds, and currency trades. Banks are making billions of dollars from trading trillions of dollars every day.
The Harper Government decreased the GST tax from 7% to 5% which has starved the government for funds. (To impair government) We could replace 1%
In Canada we pay, annually, 35 Billion dollars in various subsidies to very profitable carbon fuel corporations. Also Canada’s oil royalties are the lowest in the world? We need to make money and Canadian jobs from our resources.
We should avoid “Free Trade” agreements. These treaties will give corporations and other nations the power to sue us for billions of dollars for reducing our carbon emissions if it reduced their profits; and secretly! To fight global warming we need active and resourceful governments. And we need to encourage other nations to reduce carbon emissions!
All countries have to negotiate the ending of current wars everywhere and use the freed up money to save the environment. The difficulty is that wars are very profitable for many big corporations.
We need long term birth control pills for free, (one pill per year) and for everyone everywhere. This could save countries from overpopulation and famine; and wars.
Freed up money would hire millions of people to insulating buildings, build rapid transit and small efficient vehicles, produce and install clean energy alternatives, and improve the economy.
There are many opportunities to reduce carbon emissions but we are delaying any action! Any reduction in carbon atmosphere takes time to make a difference. So if we don’t wait for other countries to move we could lose our ability to control climate heating!
If we start now; we can make it!
Not The End
The ostrich is smarter than humans; they don’t hide their heads in the sand!
Some useful web sites
Russians are familiar with disasters and Dr. Shakhova sees one coming!
There is 1000 GT under the ESAS, that is one trillion tons!!
Cattle production should be sharply reduced:
Gas wells leak a lot and for ever:
By Shindell; deep.
Hansen says 2 degrees is too high to be allowed.
Daniel Henshaw: at firstname.lastname@example.org
Geothermal the invisible savior:
CO2 emissions are always increasing so our biggest climate problem is to reduce CO2 emissions! CO2 doesn’t decay, so it is often said that “We can’t do anything with CO2 except adapt to the changing in climate”! This message comes from the carbon corporations and is not surprising because the reduction of CO2 emissions, means the reduction of their profits!
In fact we can do a lot to save the climate. We can do “energy efficiency” which is insulating buildings, producing adequate transit in big cities, use fast rail travel instead of flying for 400 km trips, use new appliances and LED (diode) lights at home, and in skyscrapers, and street lights. But the biggest CO2 reducer would be to produce our electricity with clean geothermal electric power!
Deep geothermal energy has a vast clean energy potential. At a depth of 5 to 10 km below ground the temperature is 150 to 250 degrees C in many places.
Geothermal energy could replace most if not all of the present coal and natural gas electric power generators. This would make a big reduction of the world’s CO2 emissions! The oceans and trees etc absorb about 35% of CO2 emissions too.
Our carbon assisted media tells us that geothermal is difficult to find a suitable location to drill and all of the costs are at the beginning of construction. But oil wells have the same problems. And geothermal produces power for 20 or 30 years; much longer than oil wells! Also many deep dry oil wells have records of high temperatures and they could be used as geothermal wells. And with the new horizontal drilling (1 km or more) long it may not need to shatter the rock which causes earthquakes! Also Fracking uses 5 or 6 horizontal wells from one vertical well which could be used to collect plenty of heat to produce steam.
The old process is: Two wells are drilled and the rock between them is fractured by high pressure water. Then water is then forced through the hot rocks and up the other well to produce high pressure steam that drives electric generators. The well can produce power for 30 years with no emissions except small amounts from the original drilling process.
Drilling technology with horizontal drilling used in Fracking where the well goes out over 1 kilometer and possibly much further. They also drill 20,000 feet deep for Racking and could easily go much deeper too. And with horizontal well’s one or two km long there may not be a requirement to shatter the hot rocks. And with “a pipe within a pipe” there could be only one vertical well.
Geothermal energy has big advantages:
- It would bring economical emission free power to developing countries like China and India and the world. China has started.
- The limitless electricity supply will enable us to heat all of our buildings, and appliances, and power all of our plug-in battery-powered cars, with no CO2 emissions!
- And using the, cheap endless, steam directly it could efficiently desalinate seawater, or remove CO2 from the atmosphere and use it to produce some solid useful material!
- Geothermal power can replace existing coal and natural gas power plants with its clean power.
- With improving technology geothermal costs will decrease.
- Geothermal power doesn’t pollute the ground water because its horizontal wells are very deep, and it doesn’t need gravel or poisonous chemicals.
- We can then use geothermal to heat the tar sands and their refining for countries that don’t have geothermal power.
- Building geothermal will employ thousands of workers.
- Canada can do it ourselves instead of our present system where foreign corporations keep all of the profits and leave us with high unemployment!
Geothermal Power will sharply reduce the profits of the Carbon Corporations. The installation of the wells etc will take years of time so oil and natural gas production will be decreasing too. Fracking methane output is decreasing and it is a more powerful climate heater than coal too. The carbon people have done their best to delay the coming take over of geothermal power. But with the decline in cheap oil and natural gas (methane), and coal too, Geothermal power could fill the gap just in time!!
Not the End