Global heating has to be reduced!
Rapid reducing of carbon emissions is required, or we are doomed!
Three dangers are here:
Methane’s 100 year GWP is 34; which is the measure of methane’s heating power. But that is also the lowest possible GWP (Global Warming Potential)! The methane’s 1 year “time horizon” is ignored now? But it does produce a GWP of 162 or 171!
Black Carbon (BC) (soot) is ignored but its power is close to methane’s!
Carbon dioxide emissions are expected to last for ever. But oceans and plants absorb a lot of it. Our job is to decrease our production of CO2!
The danger clock is the fast warming Arctic and its trillion tons of methane hydrates. The heat releases millions more tons of methane every year; which warm the Arctic more; which releases even more methane! Time is short!
This is the methane decay graph which displays its warming power!
The 100 year “Time Horizon” and the “Standard”
The graph line above starts at 100% and decays for 100 years decreasing to 0.3% at 100 years. Those 100 years have annual descending values which create an “average”, which is the base of its GWP! The graph shows that after 40 years the values are below the 10% level, and after 80 years they are below 1%; which produces a low average and a low “Standard” GWP of 34! That is 34 times as powerful as the same weight of CO2. (CO2 has a GWP of 1.)
The 20 year “time horizon”:
The 20 year GWP starts at 100% but its “average” ends after 20 years so its GWP is higher. The IPCC (International Panel of Climate Change) creates its GWP of 86 but it isn’t much used; the 100 year “Time Horizon” is everything!
The 1 year “time horizon”:
The 1 year “average’ is 100% on the graph. And the 100% level is where all of the atmospheric methane is and where it produces its heat! So this is an important GWP!
A problem was added! Methane’s GWPs are increased periodically to “upgrade” the 100 and 20 year “time horizons”. But the “1 Year” “time horizon” was not “upgraded” and it has to be caught up!
The 1 Year “time horizon” correction” can be found from what the 100 Year “Time Horizon” has received since 1995. In 1995 the original 100 year GWP was 21% and today’s GWP is 34%.
(The 34% – 21% = 13% is the increase.) So the increase is 13%/21% = 62%. The “1 year” average is 100% and adding the 62% makes the GWP 162!
The methane decays annually by 5.6%, which is replaced by 5.6% of methane emissions which keep the methane’s concentration at the steady 100% level! So the 5.6% emissions should be added to methane’s new “average”. The 5.6% increases 162% x 5.6% = 9.07%). And 162 + 9.07 = 171 GWP!
The warming power of 171 GWP is 5 times the “Standard” GWP 34!
This is frightening when methane is 5 times as powerful as what we all think!? Methane produces ½ as much CO2 as coal. But with methane’s new 5 times power; its leaks with just 0.7% will produce as much heat as coal.
The California Aliso super leak was 800,000 tons but with the 5 times power; it had actually the warming power of 4,000,000 tons!!
With the Tar Sand’s methane torches, used to melt the deep tar oil often lose 20% of the methane without burning it. So they will heat the climate by 100% as well as the Tar Sands Oil!
Cattle emit 100 kg every year or 1/10th of a tonne. So the 1.5 billion cattle emit 150 million tonnes per year. And with the 5 times increase the total heating is of 750 million tonnes/ year!
The Radiative Forcing (RF) shows the heating of every/sq meter on Earth:
The RF of methane’s “Standard” GWP 34 is:
1.8 PPM (Methane parts per million) x 34 GWP (Standard) x 0.004 (Correction constant) x 0.36 (Equal Mass Factor) x 2.7 (1750 correction) = 0.24 watts/sq meter!
There is a problem here because the IPCC claims the “Standard” is 0.48 watts/sq meter!!
Methane’s RF is 171 GWP:
1.8 PPM (Methane parts per million) x 171 GWP (“1 Year” “time horizon”) x 0.004 (Correction constant) x 0.36 (Equal Mass Factor) x 2.7 (1750 correction) =1.2 watts/sq meter!
Black Carbon RF is here:
Its RF is 1.1 watts/ sq meter on all of the earth. It turns Greenland grey and glaciers too. See the Yale U. Black Carbon report below:
The RF of CO2 (carbon dioxide):
It is: 400 PPM (CO2 concentration) x 1 (GWP by definition) x .004 (correction constant) = 1.6 watts/sq meter!
Our calculations of the heating power of methane are wrong! The results lower methane’s warming power to 1/5th of its real power! The 1 Year “Time Horizon” produces the 100%, the highest methane power; which is ignored! The 100 Year “Time Horizon” is the lowest reasonable lowest methane power; which is used for everything!
Black Carbon has been ignored since 2009 when it was discovered by Shindell; and it is almost as powerful as methane! And CO2’s concentration constantly increases because we burn about as much carbon fuel as is possible!
There are many easy reductions of carbon use.
The cattle population has to be reduced by half. Tar Sands have to be melted by geothermal hot water, not by methane! The million Fracking leaks in North America have to be fixed. CO2 has to be controlled by a tax on gasoline to encourage car pooling and transit. Buildings have to be well insulated. Cars can be made of fiber glass and plastic fenders and light weight! None of these have been done effectively.
This approach seems to be correct! So we have to start pressuring the Big Oil corporations. They have hidden many other secrets!
For example in Texas they vent methane because it is invisible! Canadian oil has close ties with Texas. So our government should create a group (not by Big Oil) able to find methane leaks and repair them! Methane can be seen now. Those should include leaks from the methane torches that melt tar sands oil! And it has to start now! Will it ever?
See the URLs below:
The End: Daniel Henshaw: email@example.com 604-730-0209
Some needed money sources:
We need money for governments now.
A carbon tax can be charged to the producers of carbon emissions. This tax makes consumers use energy efficiency. “Cap and Trade” is popular because it is complex and very profitable but our emissions are always higher. Every country should have a carbon tax! And the money collected should be used to produce clean energy.
The banks, corporations and the rich have hidden billions of dollars in foreign banks to avoid paying taxes on them! Our last government laid off about 500 federal tax accountants who used to collect some of this. It is called “dead money” now because it does nothing useful. We need it to save us and our children!
The “Robin-hood” tax would charge a 0.05% on transactions of commodities, bonds, and currency trades. Banks are making billions of dollars from trading trillions of dollars every day.
The Harper Government decreased the GST tax from 7% to 5% which has starved the government for funds. (To impair government.) We could replace 1%
In Canada we pay, annually, 35 Billion dollars in various subsidies to very profitable carbon fuel corporations. Also Canada’s oil royalties are the lowest in the world? We need to make money and Canadian jobs from our resources.
We should avoid “Free Trade” agreements. These treaties will give corporations and other nations the power to sue us for billions of dollars for reducing our carbon emissions if it reduced their profits; and secretly! To fight global warming we need active and resourceful governments. And we need to encourage other nations to reduce carbon emissions!
All countries have to negotiate the ending of current wars everywhere and use the freed up money to save the environment. The difficulty is that wars are very profitable for many big corporations.
We need long term birth control pills for free, (one pill per year) and for everyone everywhere. This could save countries from overpopulation, famine; and wars.
Freed up money would hire millions of people to insulating buildings, build rapid transit and small efficient vehicles, produce and install clean energy alternatives, and improve the economy.
The ostrich is smarter than humans; they don’t hide their heads in the sand!
Some useful web sites
Russians are familiar with disasters and Dr. Shakhova sees one coming!
There is 1000 GT under the ESAS, that is one trillion tons!!
Gas wells leak a lot and for ever:
Hansen says 2 degrees is too high to be allowed.
Daniel Henshaw: at firstname.lastname@example.org
Geothermal the invisible savior:
We can’t do anything now with CO2 except adapt to the change in climate!? This message comes from the carbon corporations who see CO2 as a measure of their massive profits!
In fact with Geothermal clean power we can reduce most of CO2 and save the climate! We can replace dirty coal and methane gas electricity with clean geothermal power! And it can power cars, buses, locomotives, and heat buildings, and lights; all instead of using dirty carbon fuels!
Deep geothermal energy has a vast clean energy potential. At a depth of 2 to 10 km below ground the temperature is 150 to 250 degrees C in many places.
Geothermal produces power for 20 or 30 years; much longer than oil wells! Also many deep dry oil wells have records of high temperatures and those locations could be used to drill geothermal wells. And with the new horizontal drilling (1 km or more) long it will not need to shatter the rock which causes earthquakes! Also Fracking uses 5 or 6 horizontal wells from one vertical well which could be used to collect plenty of heat to produce steam.
Geothermal energy has big advantages:
- It is bringing clean power to China and other countries!
- The limitless geothermal electricity can replace methane and coal generation and sharply reduce carbon emissions! And it will supply clean electricity to battery-powered cars, with no CO2 emissions!
- And using the, cheap endless, steam directly it could desalinate seawater, or remove CO2 from the atmosphere and use it to produce something useful!
- Geothermal power doesn’t pollute the ground water because it doesn’t use poisonous chemicals.
- Geothermal can melt the tar sands with hot water instead of burning methane (natural gas) which often leaks 20% from its giant blow torches!
- Building geothermal will employ thousands of workers.
- Canada can do it ourselves instead of our present system where foreign Big Oil corporations stop us from developing it at all!
Geothermal Power will need a few billion dollars and a few years to learn efficient and cheap production. Big Oil has tried to delay geothermal power’s development because it will sharply reduce its profits. Geothermal is required to save our climate by replacing Fracking methane and coal and gasoline too.
Not the End