These calculations aren’t rocket science but may need to be read twice.
Methane is our new climate warming boss! Carbon Dioxide is always mentioned in the climate treaties. But methane and Fracking is where the deadly action is! There are vast areas of Fracking wells leaking methane over North America and a million miles of old leaky pipelines. The threat isn’t just the increased volume of methane gas. Methane’s own warming power called (Global Warming Potential) GWP is much more powerful than we think!
There are many different values of Methane’s GWP from the low 35 “Standard value” up to 265! The GWP 35 has a “100 year time horizon” (on the graph.). The graph shows the decay of methane from 100% to 0.3% over 100 years. The 100 annual values are averaged to produce the base amount of the GWP. That average has 60 years of low values (see the graph) which produce the low GWP of 34!
There is a 20 year “time horizon” with a higher average (the lowest value there is at 30%) and its average is higher and produces a GWP of 86.
This paper is to show several higher GWPs which are creating the higher climate temperatures!
The 1 year “time horizon”
It has a single average of 100%. (See on the graph.)
The 20 year GWP can supply information about the IPCC (International Panel for Climate Change) which adds certain adjustments.
Methane’s “12 year ½ life” formula produces the graph above. It averages the 20 annual values; and the average is 57.6%. The 20 year GWP is now 86 so (86 – 57.6 = 28.4%). And the 28.4% is what the IPCC has added! The percent of the IPCC added amount is 28.4/57.6 = is 49%!
The 1 year “time horizon’s” average is 100% so adding 49% = a GWP of 149!
The 5.6% methane emissions:
The methane in the atmosphere stays at the same 100% level because emissions add 5.6% every year and that replaces methane’s decay. The 5.6% of decay is from the “12 year ½ life” formula. Without the emissions the methane will decay like in the graph and everyone would be happy!
The 20 years of emissions would be 5.6% x 20 (years) = 112%. (That is more than the 5 billion tons of the atmosphere’s methane!) Should that be ignored?
Adding the original 100% + 112% = 212% which is the amount of methane involved.
The 20 year emission GWP would be 212% x 86 (20 year GWP) = 182 GWP.
The 100 year emissions would be (5.6% x 100) = 560% + 100% (the original) = 660% (100 years of emissions) x 34 (100 year GWP) = 224 GWP.
The GWPs 182 and 224 are quite close!
Drew Shindell’s “ozone and carbon” GWP of 105:
Dr. Shindell is the expert on methane’s complex decay; and found there more ozone and carbon that increase global warming! His result increases methane’s GWP to 105 in the 20 year time horizon. This was in 2009 so the 105 GWP should have been increased as were all of the other GWPs in 2013!
The new GWP would be 86/72 (the previous GWP)x 105 = 125 GWP (the updated Shindell GWP)!
And the 20 year emission GWP would still be 5.6% x 20 = 112% + 100% = 212% The 20 year emission GWP would still be 212% x 125 GWP (Shindell 20 year GWP) = 265 GWP!
There are increases of methane’s GWPs every 5 years or so. The concentration of CO2 increases with more emissions. That causes a decrease in the warming power of CO2. This is caused because the CO2’s reflection of heat is clogged! And the CO2’s GWP is connected with the methane’s GWP “if you must know”
Methane is 265 times as powerful as an equal amount of CO2!!
The methane in the atmosphere has increased to about 2 parts per million. The CO2 is 400 parts per million. So CO2 has 200 times as much as methane. But the CO2 GWP is 1 and methane’s GWP is 265! And 265 / 200 = 132%. Then methane is 132% higher than CO2’s warming power!
There are arguments here because CO2 is heavier than methane, (CH4). But there is a “1750 correction” that balances it.
Compared to the methane “Standard” of 34 GWP the 265 GWP is 7.8 times higher and warm maker!
Methane’s GWP of 265 is about 8 times higher than Big Oil’s “Standard” GWP of 34. And this changes everything! This high warming power of methane has always been there. But with the increased amount of Fracking leaks and more cattle burps and land fills for 8 billion people and rice growing; plus methane’s power is very dangerous!
All of that methane will have to be reduced by 50% quickly; and not in 10 years! That will cost billions of dollars.
Fracking may have to go. The chemicals, used to free the methane, poisons the ground water over large areas. This often makes farmland impossible to use again! And many a village has bad water problems from Fracking poison. There is a case now in Canada’s Supreme court by Jessica Ernst a farm owner. And there are other farm cases in US courts too.
The US government the EPA tells us that methane wells only leak 1.5% of their production! But University reports from Fracking fields say they often leak 10% of their methane production! (The USA has several independent aircraft pilots with accurate methane equipment concentration testing.)
There is hope?
We have to collect our own information and use it to repair all of the leaky wells, new and old.
There is money available to for this. The rich and bankers hide their Billions in foreign countries and don’t pay taxes; that can be stopped! And a carbon tax works, and a “transaction tax” or “Toby Tax” would help too. Canada annually subsidizes Big Oil with 35 billion dollars every year which can be cut.
With the New infrared cameras we can find methane leaks and fix them; not the corporations. Canada will have to lead because both American presidential candidates are keen to expand the drilling of Fracking wells world wide!
Geothermal power (Drill deep and use the heat.) can produce clean, cheap and unlimited electric power! It is available all around the world. And it can replace Fracking, coal and natural gas all of which leak large amounts of methane! We have to lead here too.
Big Oil will not be happy but their fibs generally cause disasters! Methane is increasing everywhere especially in the warming Arctic. There winters show +20 degree temperatures above normal. The ocean ice is melting away and the 1 trillion tons of methane hydrates are emitting increasing amounts of methane.
It may be time to do something other than talking about the next meeting!!
Daniel Henshaw: firstname.lastname@example.org 604-730-0209 See the sites below!
Look at the URLs below:
Mar 26, 2016.
Hon. Ms. Jody Wilson-Raybould, PC, MP:
This letter is about how to reduce our methane and CO2 emissions and the Site C Dam.
There is technology that can see the leaking of invisible methane!
We have an agreement with the US to reduce our methane emissions by 40% below 2012 levels by 2025! But everyone has been given false information. The US government EPA says Fracking methane only leaks 1.5% of its production! But independent measurements around Fracking wells, in the USA, have found most leaks between 5% and 10%! And that doesn’t include leaks by pipelines, storage, and methane’s processing. If methane leaks more than 3.5% of its production; its climate warming power is worse than coal’s!
The new camera (the FLIR GF320) that can see methane!
Pictures of the giant Californian methane leak probably used this camera. It was recently used to find 180 large leaks all over the USA. Canada could use them to find methane leaks, find how much they emit, and fix them! Aircraft pictures could check the vast areas of Fracking wells and old expired wells. Tight oil often vents unwanted methane. Depleted Fracking wells will leak methane forever because their powerful chemicals keep dissolving rocks and poisoning the water! There is a case in Pennsylvania that has convicted a drilling company for several million dollars for poisoning a neighborhood’s water!
Bad news for BC:
B.C. is trying to spend 8 billion dollars on the Site C Dam to power two, LNG projects in BC. One will be at Woodfibre in Howe Sound and the other near Prince Rupert! And they will be funded by the Indonesian state owned company, Petronus. Even one project will require thousands of new Fracking wells and end any attempts to reduce Canada’s methane emissions! There is danger that producing the LNG needs compressing thousands of tons of methane every day and will use the ocean water to cool the process. This heating of the ocean water will kill most sea life near the factory, including the salmon.
LNG and Fracking are both disasters that should end. The Peace River Valley should be left alone. The valley is a large valuable agricultural area, able to replace the agricultural interior of BC when the drought comes.
The First Nations people’s treaties being ignored. Their home will be destroyed and there will be no fish, or hunting, or tourists, and no jobs either!
The Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions:
CO2 does most of our climate warming. Its heat is accelerating the amount of Arctic methane emissions. And CO2 is absorbed by the oceans where it produces Carbonic acid which is starting to kill ocean life; so time is short for CO2 reductions! CO2 emissions are reduced by using energy efficiency but not nearly fast enough!
Geothermal power is the force that can save us!
Replacing most of the world’s carbon generated electricity will sharply reduce our CO2 emissions! It takes heat from hot rock 5 or 6 km down and uses it produce steam to power electric generators; while producing no CO2 emissions. Records of all gas and oil wells keep track of their temperatures! This saves costs of finding hot sources for geothermal wells!
Nearly all developed countries are installing geothermal power, except Canada. Horizontal drilling for a kilometer in several directions could be a big benefit for geothermal power. But the carbon corporations will continue the fight against geothermal power; a powerful opponent!
Our vital target now is to save the climate. But we can’t succeed without correct emission information. And we need to verify that ourselves. Canadians need to be educated about our climate situation. The CBC could much to help that!doesn’t mention anything about it!
A methane essay by Bill McKibben, researched by Harvard that should be read by all, especially MPs.
Saving Us From Burning Up:
We are destroying the world; and quickly. Our carbon emissions are warming the Arctic and melting its sea ice and exposing more heat absorbing ocean water. This is increasing its methane (natural gas) emissions by millions of tons every year. This comes from the melting of some of the trillion tons of methane hydrates under the Arctic Ocean and also the Siberian ground too. The ESAS (Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf) is twice the size of British Columbia, and half of it is less than 100 feet (30 meters) deep. The CO2 in the atmosphere is absorbed in the oceans where it turns to carbonic acid which kills oysters, clams, coral and other ocean life. Our carbon emissions are producing warming that causes disastrous storms, droughts and the melting of both ice caps. And we do nothing to stop any of it!
It started with Exxon being concerned about global warming in the 1980s. Their increasing CO2 emissions might heat the world’s climate, and threaten their profits. To avoid this, they produced propaganda that global warming was produced by sun spots and many other false ideas. Soon Exxon was joined by coal, natural gas and other large corporations. They all supplied serious money that financed many think tanks, armies of lobbyists, pliable governments, and they controlled almost all of the media. For 40 years they developed the perfect world sized trillion dollar profit machine.
But suddenly we may be losing control of our warming Arctic. With many positive heat feedbacks the Arctic methane emissions could increase too rapidly to stop!
The simple and only way to stop these various dangers is to reduce carbon emissions and lower temperatures. But the Exxon group (the profit machine) is still telling the “don’t worry be happy” messages. For example: “Our carbon emissions will be down to the zero amount by 2050”. There is no time for talking about 35 years from now! We need to take action now.
Methane (Natural Gas) Emission Reductions:
Our Methane emissions could be reduced by 50%. And methane decays quickly so it will decrease fast. The world’s 1.5 billion cattle produce about half of our methane emissions! The thousands of garbage dumps (millions?) emit methane, as does clear cutting vast areas of jungle. Fracking methane wells often leak about 10% of their production and they need to be closely regulated and avoided. Also methane pipelines leak (old) inside cities. California’s Aliso Canyon methane storage well has been stopped. But the USA has more than 300 of these methane storage wells which haven’t been maintained or tested for decades!
The Fracking methane wells and the methane storage in old carbon wells should be stopped. And the cattle population could be cut in half. That would enable the cattle to browse on grass instead of corn. The present corn US/Canada crop is 70% eaten by cattle. That corn could be released to feed the one billion seriously hungry people! Beef can be replaced by pork or poultry or kangaroo meat.
An organization called earthworksaction.org found over 180 methane leaks with infrared cameras. These were all around the USA so there could be 1800 or more leaks. There is a report that methane leaks of pipelines to serve Boston loses 90 million dollars worth of methane! Canada must have the same percentage of leaks too.
CO2 is the evil giant which doesn’t decay. But 30 billion tons of it enter the atmosphere every year and about 10 billion are absorbed in the oceans and trees.
Oceans have been absorbing 90% of our excess heat for 100 years! And the hot ocean water is moving lower in oceans where it will start to warm the deep methane hydrate deposits that surround every continent. Large deep areas around New Zealand show where methane emissions have moved large areas of the ocean floor! The warming climate is also melting vast amounts of Greenland’s ice which is starting to slow the the Gulf Stream; which will mess up the climate everywhere!
To reduce CO2 emissions requires a carbon tax, and energy efficiency, plus clean energy like wind, solar, and planting billions of trees. Also clean Geothermal generation could produce over 25% of clean electricity in North America. It collects heat by drilling wells deep under the earth where the rocks are hot. And horizontal drilling would be an advantage. Geothermal with its clean and cheap power could retire many coal and methane powered electricity power plants! Certainly every Geothermal power plant is a loss of CO2 emissions and profit!
There are 1.3 billion automobiles around the world, made of steel. We can make much lighter, smaller, efficient, electric cars with smaller batteries, and made of fiber glass which is as strong as steel, but doesn’t rust or produce CO2 in production. Efficient city transit is cheaper than building 10 lane bridges etc. We can also produce cement low in CO2 .
We can do a hundred other things if we have money!
Some needed money sources:
Governments claim poverty and say they have to lower taxes and balance their budget. We need money for useful governments now. Carbon Corporations may be losing their high profits of about 1 trillion dollars every decade! They could use some of it to help our survival! They could develop clean Geothermal electric power which should be easier to do with new horizontal drilling. It’s electricity could be cheap enough to replace coal and natural gas electricity and could remove salt from ocean water and also take CO2 from the atmosphere and turn it into a solid!
A carbon tax can be charged to the producers of carbon emissions. This tax makes consumers use energy efficiency. “Cap and Trade” is popular because it is complex and very profitable but it hasn’t slowed our emissions in 10 years! Every country should have a carbon tax! And the money collected should be used to produce clean energy.
The banks, corporations and the rich have hidden billions of dollars in foreign banks to avoid paying taxes on them! Our last government laid off about 500 federal tax accountants who used to collect some of this. It is called “dead money” now because it does nothing useful. We need it to save us and our children!
The “Robin-hood” tax would charge a 0.05% on transactions of commodities, bonds, and currency trades. Banks are making billions of dollars from trading trillions of dollars every day.
The Harper Government decreased the GST tax from 7% to 5% which has starved the government for funds. (To impair government) We could replace 1%
In Canada we pay, annually, 35 Billion dollars in various subsidies to very profitable carbon fuel corporations. Also Canada’s oil royalties are the lowest in the world? We need to make money and Canadian jobs from our resources.
We should avoid “Free Trade” agreements. These treaties will give corporations and other nations the power to sue us for billions of dollars for reducing our carbon emissions if it reduced their profits; and secretly! To fight global warming we need active and resourceful governments. And we need to encourage other nations to reduce carbon emissions!
All countries have to negotiate the ending of current wars everywhere and use the freed up money to save the environment. The difficulty is that wars are very profitable for many big corporations.
We need long term birth control pills for free, (one pill per year) and for everyone everywhere. This could save countries from overpopulation and famine; and wars.
Freed up money would hire millions of people to insulating buildings, build rapid transit and small efficient vehicles, produce and install clean energy alternatives, and improve the economy.
There are many opportunities to reduce carbon emissions but we are delaying any action! Any reduction in carbon atmosphere takes time to make a difference. So if we don’t wait for other countries to move we could lose our ability to control climate heating!
If we start now; we can make it!
Not The End
The ostrich is smarter than humans; they don’t hide their heads in the sand!
Some useful web sites
Russians are familiar with disasters and Dr. Shakhova sees one coming!
There is 1000 GT under the ESAS, that is one trillion tons!!
Cattle production should be sharply reduced:
Gas wells leak a lot and for ever:
By Shindell; deep.
Hansen says 2 degrees is too high to be allowed.
Daniel Henshaw: at email@example.com
Geothermal the invisible savior:
CO2 emissions are always increasing so our biggest climate problem is to reduce CO2 emissions! CO2 doesn’t decay, so it is often said that “We can’t do anything with CO2 except adapt to the changing in climate”! This message comes from the carbon corporations and is not surprising because the reduction of CO2 emissions, means the reduction of their profits!
In fact we can do a lot to save the climate. We can do “energy efficiency” which is insulating buildings, producing adequate transit in big cities, use fast rail travel instead of flying for 400 km trips, use new appliances and LED (diode) lights at home, and in skyscrapers, and street lights. But the biggest CO2 reducer would be to produce our electricity with clean geothermal electric power!
Deep geothermal energy has a vast clean energy potential. At a depth of 5 to 10 km below ground the temperature is 150 to 250 degrees C in many places.
Geothermal energy could replace most if not all of the present coal and natural gas electric power generators. This would make a big reduction of the world’s CO2 emissions! The oceans and trees etc absorb about 35% of CO2 emissions too.
Our carbon assisted media tells us that geothermal is difficult to find a suitable location to drill and all of the costs are at the beginning of construction. But oil wells have the same problems. And geothermal produces power for 20 or 30 years; much longer than oil wells! Also many deep dry oil wells have records of high temperatures and they could be used as geothermal wells. And with the new horizontal drilling (1 km or more) long it may not need to shatter the rock which causes earthquakes! Also Fracking uses 5 or 6 horizontal wells from one vertical well which could be used to collect plenty of heat to produce steam.
The old process is: Two wells are drilled and the rock between them is fractured by high pressure water. Then water is then forced through the hot rocks and up the other well to produce high pressure steam that drives electric generators. The well can produce power for 30 years with no emissions except small amounts from the original drilling process.
Drilling technology with horizontal drilling used in Fracking where the well goes out over 1 kilometer and possibly much further. They also drill 20,000 feet deep for Racking and could easily go much deeper too. And with horizontal well’s one or two km long there may not be a requirement to shatter the hot rocks. And with “a pipe within a pipe” there could be only one vertical well.
Geothermal energy has big advantages:
- It would bring economical emission free power to developing countries like China and India and the world. China has started.
- The limitless electricity supply will enable us to heat all of our buildings, and appliances, and power all of our plug-in battery-powered cars, with no CO2 emissions!
- And using the, cheap endless, steam directly it could efficiently desalinate seawater, or remove CO2 from the atmosphere and use it to produce some solid useful material!
- Geothermal power can replace existing coal and natural gas power plants with its clean power.
- With improving technology geothermal costs will decrease.
- Geothermal power doesn’t pollute the ground water because its horizontal wells are very deep, and it doesn’t need gravel or poisonous chemicals.
- We can then use geothermal to heat the tar sands and their refining for countries that don’t have geothermal power.
- Building geothermal will employ thousands of workers.
- Canada can do it ourselves instead of our present system where foreign corporations keep all of the profits and leave us with high unemployment!
Geothermal Power will sharply reduce the profits of the Carbon Corporations. The installation of the wells etc will take years of time so oil and natural gas production will be decreasing too. Fracking methane output is decreasing and it is a more powerful climate heater than coal too. The carbon people have done their best to delay the coming take over of geothermal power. But with the decline in cheap oil and natural gas (methane), and coal too, Geothermal power could fill the gap just in time!!
Not the End